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Pictured: F1 driver Fernando Alonso of Spain driving the #14 Aston Martin of Mercedes Peter Fox/Getty Images.

F1 odds, predictions and picks: 3 early bets for Chinese Grand Prix for Sunday 4/21

Originally posted on Action Network | By Cody Goggin | Last updated 4/18/24

Check out the F1 odds and Chinese Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on early Sunday morning, April 21 (3 a.m. ET, ESPN).

For the first time since 2019, Formula One will return to Shanghai for the Chinese Grand Prix. This race has not occurred since it was canceled in 2020 following the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting restrictions that China had in place for the following years.

For this reason, many newer fans of F1 may not be familiar with this circuit at all. It is a bit of a unique track with a variety of different features. It has both slow corners and fast corners spread throughout, along with a 1.4-kilometer full-throttle section of the track that includes an incredibly long straight.

This section of the track will really penalize cars that have issues with high drag. Teams such as Mercedes and McLaren in the mid-tier and Alpine in the back will all want to take steps to solve these issues if they want a chance to contend this weekend.

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With this track having just been repaved and the potential of rain earlier in the weekend or overnight, a potentially interesting storyline to keep an eye on would be a lack of grip, which could add some variance to the outcome of this race.

F1 China will also be the site of the first sprint weekend of the year. For those unaccustomed, instead of a standard race weekend with three practices, qualifying, and then a race on Sunday, the weekend’s schedule will instead include two races. There will just be one qualifying session on Friday (Thursday night in U.S.) before sprint qualifying that night. The sprint and qualifying for the grand prix will take place on Saturday, and the grand prix will then take place on Sunday as normal.

Here are the F1 odds for Sunday's F1 Chinese Grand Prix race winner, as of Thursday and via FanDuel:

Max Verstappen: -550
Charles Leclerc: +1400
Carlos Sainz Jr.: +1400
Sergio Perez: +1500
Lando Norris: +3600
Oscar Piastri: +4200
Lewis Hamilton: +4200
George Russell: +4200
Fernando Alonso: +11000
Lance Stroll: +20000
Nico Hulkenberg: +42000
Yuki Tsunoda: +42000
Alexander Albon: +42000
Valtteri Botas: +42000
Kevin Magnussen: +42000
Daniel Ricciardo: +42000
Pierre Gasly: +42000
Zhou Guanyu: +42000
Esteban Ocon: +42000
Logan Sargeant +42000

F1 Odds: China Grand Prix Picks & Predictions

Aston Martin's Ideal Track?

Red Bull and Ferrari are the two heaviest favorites here – as they should be. Both of these teams have proven to be fast at all types of tracks this year, and neither car has an overwhelming issue with drag that will hamper it in Shanghai.

The next tier of competitors includes Mercedes and McLaren, who have both struggled with their high levels of drag this season. McLaren, especially, has been weaker on long straights, and I think that they may struggle to find success this weekend.

This leaves the door open to look toward a team like Aston Martin to challenge for a top-6 finish. Aston Martin seems to have solved these drag issues as they reached a higher speed than any of the top five teams at Suzuka on their best lap of qualifying, according to @FDataAnalysis on Twitter.

A driver like Fernando Alonso also has an added advantage this weekend as he has much more experience at this track than much of the field. He has raced here 15 times in his F1 career, amassing two wins and five podiums with an average finish of 6.2.

On the flip side, George Russell has raced here only once, finishing 16th for Williams in 2019.

Aston Martin’s qualifying pace has been better than their race pace, largely due to the effectiveness of their DRS. While low drag is important here, high downforce is important for the first part of the track as well. I believe that Aston has the right mix of both for Alonso to be strong this weekend.

I think that Alonso’s experience and the strengths of this Aston Martin line up well this weekend. At this point in the week, my favorite bets on Alonso are for him to defeat George Russell in sprint qualifying and for him to score a top-6 finish in Sunday’s grand prix.

The Picks: Fernando Alonso Top-6 Finish (+160 at FanDuel) | Sprint Shootout Qualifying: Alonso over Russell (-135 at BetMGM)

Hulkenberg Points Finish

This long straight will also favor a car like the Haas vehicle, which has been among the fastest in the grid in a straight line. The race pace has also been impressive for Haas. They consistently are battling for points finishes.

Haas and RB should be battling for the best among the rest this weekend, and I believe these two have the best mix of low drag and high downforce that will be needed to succeed on this track. Haas is just a bit faster on the straights, which I believe will give them a slight advantage over RB.

The two drivers for Haas are priced similarly, but I’ll roll with Hulkenberg at +195 to score a point finish (top 10) in Sunday’s race as he has typically had more pace than Magnussen.