NBA best bets: Pacers vs. Knicks expert picks, player props, odds and predictions for Wed. 5/8

Pacers vs. Knicks

Wednesday, May 8, 8 p.m. ET, TNT
Knicks -4.5 (FanDuel)

By Matt Moore

First, a trend. Six seeds don't do well in the second round. Game 1 was the Pacers' chance to sneak up on the Knicks and they did, but a series of unfortunate calls contributed to them being unable to shock New York and steal home court.

Now the Knicks know they're coming.

Six seeds after Round 1 and after Game 1 on the road are 4-15 SU, 7-12 ATS.

The Knicks got great looks in Game 1. The Pacers had better looks based on location-expected effective field goal percentage, but the Knicks converted slightly higher.

I'll trust the Knicks to put together some level of resistance, and the Pacers to continue to struggle defensively. I'll lay the points here with New York after the market overreacted to Game 1 and the Mitchell Robinson injury.

Pick: Knicks -4.5

Myles Turner Over 17.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

Myles Turner has continued to look great in these matchups against the Knicks. New York has been susceptible to his combination of size and shooting ability.

The Knicks seem comfortable just living with the results of Turner finding some success as long as they can stay home on both Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam.

Turner has been a bit streaky against the Knicks, but in four games this season, he's been solid with 28, five, 23 and 23 points in those matchups. The one game he had five points he played just 24 minutes.

In Game 1, the Knicks allowed Turner to slip by them on rolls and occasionally would get lost on the perimeter if Haliburton was able to drag multiple defenders into the action.

The advantage with Turner is that he was able to punish the Knicks when they were in a drop but also as a roller when they played closer to the level.

Turner’s ability to punish defensive lapses in a variety of different ways should help him in this contest, and I expect him to exceed 17.5 points once again.

Pick: Myles Turner Over 17.5 Points

Myles Turner Over 17.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

I've said it previously, but this is a Turner series for me.

The Pacers need his size and shooting to stretch the Knicks' defense and level the rebounding battle a little bit — more so with his offense, but actually rebounding would be nice, too.

In any event, he had 23 in Game 1 despite just going 2-for-6 from 3 — he was 6-for-10 otherwise.

He's gone over 17.5 in four of six.

Pick: Myles Turner Over 17.5 Points

Pascal Siakam Under 31.5 PRA (Fanatics)

By Maltman

Remember when Siakam last had a good game in the playoffs? It was Game 2 against the Bucks, when he had 37 points, 11 rebounds and six assists.

Since then, teams have been restricting his shots, he's taken a back seat in the Pacers' offense and he hasn't gone over 31.5 PRA.

In Game 1, Siakam finished with 19 points, six rebounds and five assists. His teammates converted all of his assist chances, he grabbed more contested rebounds than he usually does and he was generally outplayed by Obi Toppin.

He also finally had a good shooting game.

I think everything for him regresses from last game: the points, rebounds and assists. Any one of his individual lines could go over, but the cumulative line catches everything.

It also covers blowout potential and fewer minutes.

I'm betting .35u on Siakam under 31.5 PRA at -105 on Fanatics (I would bet it down to -120).

Pick: Pascal Siakam Under 31.5 PRA